Current Status and Future Prospects of Anthropogenic Particulate Matter Emissions in China
中国人为源颗粒物排放现状与趋势分析

The emission inventory of particulate matter (PM) in 2000 and 2005 were established based on the activity data and emission factors of power, industrial, residential and transportation sectors in China. Future emissions from 2010 to 2030 were projected under different scenarios of energy consumption and PM emission control policies. The emissions of TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 in 2005 were 29.98Mt, 15.30 Mt and 9.79 Mt respectively, and the annual increasing rates were 3.4%, 4.7% and 5.4% during 2000 to 2005. By 2030, the emissions of TSP and PM2.5 would be 23.06 Mt and 10.59 Mt under reference scenario, of which industrial boilers are the largest contributor. With improvement of energy efficiency, the emissions of TSP and PM2.5 would be reduced by 15% and 16% respectively in 2030 compared with that under reference scenario. By intensifying the enforcement of legislation, 25% of TSP and 10% of PM2.5 can be further reduced in 2015. By tightening the emission standard and promoting high-efficiency dust collector after 2015, 21% of TSP and 19% of PM2.5 can be further reduced in 2030 and the emissions can become 13.81 Mt and 6.88 Mt separately. The control of particulate matter shall cover power, industrial and residential sectors. Actions shall include improving energy efficiency, enforcing legislation and tightening control policies.