MONTO-CARLO-SIMULATION OF COPOLYMERIZATION REACTION AND PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF KINETIC PARAMETERS
共聚反应的Monte Carlo模拟和竞聚率的概率估算

Simulation of chain propagation process of binery polymerization reaction with Monte-Carlo method and statistical probability treatment of estimating kinetic parameters were made. From statistical point of view, this is a Bayesian one in which a posterior probability density surface(PPDS) is calculated for points on a grid in the parameter space. A smoothing function is fitted to the PPDS, then reactivity ratios (r1,r2) are calculated for confidence region. When this method was used to estimate reactivity ratios of styrene-butyl acrylate copolymer,it was in good agreement with that obtained by normal calculating kinetic parameter methed.