PREDICTION OF SOIL CORROSION INDUCED LEAKAGE FREQUENCY FOR PIPELINES
管道土壤腐蚀泄漏频率预测模型研究

Statistic analysis showed that the pipeline running time before soil corrosion induced leakage accorded with a certain probabilistic distribution. Grey theory model revealed the exponential form of the accumulated generating series. In this paper, the probabilistic distribution and the grey theory GM(1,1) model were developed, analyzed, and compared with each other. From this study, the following conclusions were reached: The statistic distribution of the soil corrosion induced leakage frequency varied in stages with the changes of pipeline protective situation and its environmental condition. By means of grey theory model GM(1,1), the generating series with the strengthened regularity and the weakened randomness was obtained. The prediction results were more practical.