Analysis of industrial agglomeration and diffusion with spatial econometrics for six provinces in Central China
我国中部六省产业集聚与扩散的空间计量

With the strategy of "The Rise of Central China",the six provinces in Central China are offered golden opportunities for their great development.Accordingly,during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan(2011-2015),it is vital for them to sum up experience of precedent development concerning adjusting and upgrading industrial structure,master the law of industrial updates,and reduce the unfavorable factors in economic development to a minimum,based on which sustainable development of regional economy by leaps and bounds can be realized.First,data of the secondary industry in the period of 2000-2008 for 88 prefectures and cities in Central China are collected and LISA is used to analyze spatial aggregation and diffusion,the result of which in combination with Moran's I and Geary's C methods provides a comprehensive assessment for the industrial development in the 88 prefectures and cities.Then integrated with Markov chain simulation,the probabilities of transferring among various states are calculated to predict industrial development in the future.Finally,the empirical results indicate that,with 10 years of rapid development,the secondary industry of the six provinces will reach the level of relative equilibrium on the condition that there will be no significant change in the environment inside and outside the whole region.