Simulation of regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling and regulation policies: taking Jiangsu Province as a case
区域城市化与生态环境耦合发展模拟 及调控策略 ——以江苏省为例

According to the rule and framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling,the system dynamic model of the coupling system between urbanization and eco-environment in Jiangsu province has been designed by means of SD method.Based on Jiangsu's serial statistical data from 1990 to 2003,the five scenarios of the coupling models during 2000-2015 have been simulated.The results show that: Firstly,for there exist complex,nonlinear and changeable characteristics of the coupling system between regional urbanization and eco-environment,in terms of SD merits,it is applicable for the SD to deal with the complexity resulted from regional urbanization and eco-environment coupling.The accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2003 indicates the SD model is reliable to a certain extent,which can reveal some complex actions of the coupling system and evaluate the potential effects that urbanization intimidated eco-environment.Secondly,there exist significantly differences among the five development models,which show both comparative advantages and drawbacks.Thirdly,according to the characteristics and regional disparities of Jiangsu development and the general rule of world urbanization,it is revealed that only when either population urbanization model or society urbanization model to be adopted correspondingly can the sustainable development among population,economy,urbanization and eco-environment be realized.