Design of the seismic disaster prediction and emergency simulating system and its application:taking emergency system in Yongan city as a case
地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

Urban earthquake prevention and disa ster alleviation is one of the important factors which improve the ability of natural disaster prevention in the areas where earthquakes may occur frequently. Combining with the practice of constructing urban information management systems for anti-earthquake and seismic hazard reduction in Yongan City of Fujian Province,this paper not only discusses the mathematic models of earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation, but also analyses the critical techniques of model in tegration.In addition,a seismic hazard prediction and emergency simulation system was established based on GIS for seismic risk evaluation,vulnerability analys is of buildings,estimation of casualty and economic loss, search and rescue man agement. GIS has notable advantages for spatial analysis and graphic display.We can predict the influence of earthquake in virtue of many seismic mathematic models,such as the model of vulnerability analysis of buildings, estimation of casualty and economic loss, the influence of epicentrum. By GIS and relevant models,we can identify the coverage of earthquake which can directly affect the precision of final result. It is believed that the loss of earthquake depends on the intensity of the earthquake. Certainly,it is true.In the mathematic models, the scale and the direction of seismic grade affect the distribution range of ellipse. Another factor is also very important, that is the quality of buildings, which are affected by the materials, years and stories of a building.According to the result that leads to the formation of the models, we can take proper meas ures to reduce hazard before earthquake. The practical application of the system shows that it can not only intensify the weakness in urban earthquake preventi on according to the analysis of seismic hazard prediction result,but also provide auxiliary information for disaster affected area's decision-making and quick response.Therefore, the comprehensive abilities for urban earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation are improved evidently.