Environmental influence evaluation of land development and arrangement based on scenarios analysis:A study on Lianshui County,Jiangsu Province
基于幕景分析法的土地开发整理规划环境影响评价——以江苏省涟水县为例

Land development and consolidation plan is bound to affect ecological environmental conditions within the planned area. However, the specific evaluation method, index system and modeling algorithm should be standardized. By taking Lianshui County of Jiangsu Province as an example, Land Development and Arrangement Plan of Lianshui County (2000~2010) was analyzed, and the affection was compared by a evaluation model of scenarios. The result shows that the influence in 1997 was lower than in 2000 in Lianshui County. This can be explained as: during the three years, not only the occupation of cultivated land has been strictly controlled, but more cultivated lands have been transferred also. Environmental quality declined in 2010 because of without planning. The possible reason is that the construction of land fragmented farmland and unutilized land, which increases density of plaques. In comparison of future scenarios without planning and with planning in 2010, it is indicated that eco-environmental conditions could obviously increase by 0.6736 percentage point. This shows that proper land development and consolidation plan plays an important role in promoting a healthy eco-environment within the planned area.