Assessment of water resources carrying-capacity with multi-criteria scenario analysis method: a case study in Zhangye region
张掖地区水资源承载力多目标情景决策

In order to identify the water resources security and investigate the way for sustainable development of water resources, a new concept of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) has been widely studied in the regional sustainable development during the past decades. Asacase study, the methods of WRCC has been investigated for Zhangye region, located in the middle Heihe river basin. A dynamic and integrated model of WRCC water resources carrying capaeity is established in the frame of multi-criteria analysis on the basis of the major sectoral models including the extended input-out model, the assessment model of virtual water and the comprehensive evaluation model of WRCC, which provide an integrated frame for the study of water resources de velopment, land use, virtual water trade and socio-economic development.The WRCC in different scenarios is discussed and the influence of some important policy factors on WRCC is evaluated including the adjustment of industrial factor, im provement of water-saving technology, implementation of "water allocation" sche me, virtual water strategy, etc. The study indicated that the WRCC of Zhangyes till has considerable potentialities for sustaining the economic development with an annual rate of about 7% of GDP growth and the natural growth of the population at "Comparatively Well-off" living standard of the main agricultural products in 20 years premised with the implementation of "water allocation" scheme and the necessary environmental protection.