Dynamic calculation and analysis of sustainable development of Chizhou City in Anhui Province during 2001-2010
安徽省池州市2001～2010年可持续发展动态测度与分析

Chizhou is the first eco-economy demonstration area in Anhui Province.The rapid growth of national economy has aggravated the fragility and instability of the urban development in recent years,hence there are more chances and challenges for sustainable economic development.Based on analytical method of ecological footprint,we measured time sequence of ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Chizhou city from 2001 to 2010.Using GM,the eco-footprint per capita in 2015 and 2020 is predicted.The investigation shows that eco-footprint per capita of the city increased from 1.2458 hm2 to 2.2483 hm2,an annual rate of 11.14%,and the eco-deficit per capita increased from 0.8445 hm2 to 1.8266 hm2.The correlation coefficient between the consumption level of residents and eco-footprint per capita is about 0.844,and the correlation coefficient between the energy consumption and eco-footprint per capita is about 0.945,so the consumption level of residents and energy consumption are factors affecting eco-footprint.Energy ecological footprint has been increasing consecutively at an annual rate of 83.75%,which even surpassed the growth rates of biological footprint.Eco-footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP decreased from 2.98 hm2 in 2001 to 1.20 hm2 in 2010.This paper predicts that by the year 2015,the eco-footprint per capita will be 3.2336 hm2,and the ecological deficit per capita will be increased to 2.7926 hm2.By the year 2020,the eco-footprint per capita will be 4.4896 hm2,and the ecological deficit per capita will increase to 4.0308 hm2.Considering the unstable eco-situation in Chizhou,we propose several measures to reduce eco-footprint,including decreasing energy consumption,developing eco-tourism,changing people's consumption style,and raising crop yields.