Research on Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region''s dynamic evolvement of urbanization
基于自组织模型的酒嘉玉地区城市化动态演变

Based on the self-organizing modeling principle in the dissipative structure theory and regarding the inter-region migration coupling as the influencing factors brought in regional urbanization level simulation and prediction model,it is more practical to simulate the spatial-temporal and dynamic evolvement characteristics of regional urbanization level.According to the historical data about the population and urbanization level of Jiuquan,Jiayuguan and Yumen cities,the past 50 years' dynamic evolvement trend is simulated and the future 50 years' dynamic evolvement trend is predicted with the urbanization dynamic evolvement model which is based on the self-organizing model.The factors which affect the regional urbanization such as economic growth,resources exploitation,ecosystem construction,traffic location,national policies,and population migration,are analyzed and then the reasons for the dynamic evolvement differences in the urbanization level of the three cities are identified. By applying self-organizing model of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region,this paper describes the track of urbanization which is distinguished by the differences in the extent of urbanization and population flow.It also defines the dynamic self-organizing curve which practically anticipates the urbanization extent in the future and analyses the factor of evolvement of urbanization,which benefits the form of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen urban cluster and the whole west Longhai-Lanxin economic belt. The study suggests,the self-organizing model is fit to the simulation of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen regional urbanization level in the past 50 years and the departure between the stimulant and the actual data is under 5%,so it can be used to predict the future urbanization level of the three cities.The predicted results show that the regional population will reach 1.074 million and the regional urbanization level will be 72.56%.