Study on regional carrying capacity: theory, method and example-take the Bohai-Rim area as example
状态空间衡量区域承载状况初探——以环渤海地区为例

On the basis of retrospection of the internal and external studies on carrying capacity, this paper points out that study on solo factor carrying capacity such as land carrying capacity, resources and environmental carrying capacity is very limited in reflecting the real regional carrying capacity. It tries to resolve the problem through introducing the status space method to calculate the synthetic regional carrying capacity. That is, this paper discusses synthetically how much the regional land, resources and environment could carry under certain economic development and social improvement level. Taking the Bohai Rim area, which has comparatively poignant contradiction between the resources and environment and economic social development, as example, this paper computes the real status quo of its regional carrying capacity. The result shows that the resources and environmental carrying capacity has been surpassed. Among them, water, land resources, and eco environment which are the essential basis of economic development have the most serious problem. The mineral and energy resources are very near to their upper limit of carrying capacity. In the last part of this paper, the drawbacks and problems which need improving further are discussed. We point out the key of using this way to effectively weigh a certain region's carrying capacity lies on how to accurately determine the reasonable value of each index describing regional PRED system and the relationship between the present values and the reasonable ones.