Retrieval of the non-linear dynamic forecast model of El Nino/La Nina index based on the genetic algorithm optimization
基于遗传算法优化的ENSO指数的动力预报模型反演

Based on the 1958~1995 global month-average SSTA field reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR,using dynamical system retrieval idea and GA Genetic Algorithm approach,the parameters of El Nino/La Nina exponential dynamical forecast model are optimized and the non-linear dynamical model of Nino3 SSTA index is reconstructed from above SST data.The analytical result and forecast test show that GA has the advantage of global optimum search and parallel calculation,which enables objective and effective retrieval of SST index dynamical forecast model.So it can effectively forecast the Nino3 SST index and El Nino/La Nina event and afford useful reference to El Nino/La Nina forecast.