East Asian climate change trend under global warming background
全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测

Using the numerical experiment outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gas scenarios, the East Asian climate change trend in the 21st century is analyzed. It follows that surface air temperature warming in China synchronizes with the global average case generally. However,the warming amplitude in northeastern, western, and central China is stronger and exhibits larger inter-annual variation. It is shown that the warming magnitude of global annual mean surface air temperature in the 21st century distributes band shape along with latitudes and gradually enlarges toward high latitudes, with the maxima at the Arctic and Antarctic, especially for the former. In addition, the simulated strong warming at northern high latitudes in the second half of the 21st century is mainly due to winter warming. In the first half of the 21st century, the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration will significantly enhance summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and, however, has slight influence on the other regional annual or seasonal precipitation in China. Nevertheless, both annual and seasonal precipitation will increase notablely in China in the second half of the 21st century.