The Simulation of the Impairing on a Developing City by Several Key Elements of Environment and Regional Economy
区域经济和环境对新兴城市影响的模拟

Regional growth is one of the key problems of the regional economic study. As the shortage of resources had not been fully realized, the binding force and the carrying capacity of environment and resource to labor (population) and regional economy were not taken into consideration in the classical theory of regional growth. Based on the modern economic growth model and Logistic population growth model, a dynamical model of regional growth bounded by the regional resource and investment environment is set up in this paper. By the regional growth dynamical model, taking the economic development in Jiangxi province since 1978 as an example, the simulation study on the key economic growth factors is conducted. The simulations show that: (1) The key factor influencing the labor scale of the developing city (region) is the carrying capacity of resources and the actual increase rate of labor. The former determines the labor scale of the developing city (region), while the latter restricts the speed of regional growth. Furthermore, the influences that the carrying capacity of resources acts to the scale of regional labor and the actual labor growth rate acts to the regional growth speed are linear. (2) We should improve the investment environment of the developing city (region) and make it much better than that of the neighborhood city (region) so as to develop its economic scale further. Whereas, if its investment environment is worse than that of the neighborhood city (region), its economic scale will be limited to some degree and cannot be enlarged. (3) Among all the economic factors, the magnitude of the effects on regional growth is in the turn of the difference of the internal and external investment environment, the difference of the average wage inside and outside the region, and the saving rate. Thus, improving the investment environment and increasing the average wage inside the region are the two most important internal powers to assure the city development steadily and constantly.