Industr ial Specialization of New Economic Industry in China
中国新经济产业区域专业化水平分析

The phenomenon of New Economic Industry brings industrial specialization in China. In this paper, we study models of regional specialization that are composed of location quotient model, probability distribution and ergodic probabilities model, transition matrix and Shorrocks model. We calculate the location quotients that evaluate the level of the specialization of information industry and high science and technology industry. Then we adopt discrete-time Markov chain to simulate the probability distribution of location quotient and get the transition matrix. We calculate the ergodic probabilities and Shorrocks indexes that are used to estimate whether the specialization of regional industry has converged to the steady states. Based on the analyses of all indexes of Chinese information industry and high science and technology industry from 1998 to 2005, we find that Chinese New Economic Industry has taken on a developing progress of regional agglomeration and specialization since 1998. This will still last a period in the future, and the level of specialization will be further strengthened. The regional development of Chinese New Economic Industry is unstable, and the grades of regional development are large. Only a few provinces have a high level of development that is far above the average level of the whole country. Most regions of China still remain at a low level. From 1998 to 2005, almost every province has a general development in specialization. Regional difference of New Economic Industry becomes smaller. Regional agglomeration has developed in the past eight years, and it is an obvious characteristic of New Economic Industry. Compared with the correlative data of lumbering in USA, we draw a conclusion that Chinese New Economic Industry develops quickly, however, the states that have the great mobility are extremely unstable as a result of existence of high values of Shorrocks indexes. High science and technology industry is comparatively more stable than information industry. Information industry has a greater speed. States of regions have changed greatly, and regional specialization division has not been finished yet.