City Expansion Model of Metropolitan Area in China: a Case Study of Beijing
大都市区城市扩展模型— 以北京城市扩展模拟为例

Based on the understanding that the city expansion is the result of the collective effects of exogenous constraints and internal expanding ability of urban pixel, a city expansion model in metropolitan area (CEM) based on CA and Tietenberg model is developed to understand the city development in metropolitan area in China and Beijing is selected as the case study city here. At first, the city development in Beijing from 1975 to 1997 was simulated. Then according to the simulation, the city expansion from 1998 to 2015 was predicted under the condition that the optimal amount and optimal location of the urban land use in the future should be both satisfied. The results suggested that the model can represent the characteristics and rules of the city development, especially the city expansion in the metropolitan area to a certain extent if the influencing factors are standardized strictly and the optimal weights are given by adaptive Monte Carlo method newly developed in the paper.