Land Use Change Simulation Model Based on MCDM and CA and Its Application
基于多目标决策和CA 模型的土地利用变化 预测模型及其应用

A macro-micro integrated land use change model, Grey-Cellular automata (CA) -Multi-Criterion Decision-Making (MCDM)-Geographic Information System (GIS) based model (GCMG for short) which can simulate human decision making process was proposed. The GCMG model borrows the theoretical hypothesis of CLUE-S model which supposes that regional land use change is driven by its land use requirement and the land use distribution is in dynamic balance with land use demands and regional natural resources and socio-economic conditions. The GCMG model consists of both non-spatial and spatial part. The non-spatial part, so called macro model, calculates the changes of land use demand in the future based on experiential relationship of land use and its dominating drivers using the grey model. The spatial part, also called micro model, completes the land use allocation process whose total quantity is calculated by the non-spatial part with a combined method of MCDM, GIS and CA model. In the spatial part, firstly MCDM method was used to simulate the human decision making process for land use change considering socio-economic and bio-physical conditions; the results of which was brought into conversion rule of CA model; and the integration was finally implemented in GIS to model the land use allocation. To illustrate the functioning of GCMG model and its validation, it is applied in Longhai County to simulate land use change in 2010. As one of the typical counties at coastal area of Fujian Province, great changes in land use have taken place in Longhai County over the past decades, including the garden plots expansion, town land for urban and rural housing, and land for industrial and mining purpose. Firstly the GCMG simulation results are compared with map of the actual distribution of land use in 2000 for validation. The Kappa equals to 0.93 in the simulation at 10 m×10 m grid level and has gained satisfactory results. Then the validated model is applied to simulate the land use conversion probabilities under different decision-making scenarios. The results show that the basic farmland protection policy will determine the future land use change pattern. The application of GCMG model indicated that it can both simulate the land use demand at macro level and land suitability at micro level, thus possessing the ability of studying the multi-level land use system.