A Modeling Study of Climatic Change and Its Implication for Agriculture in China Part I: Climatic Change in China
A Modeling Study of Climatic Change and Its Implication for Agriculture in C

The trends and features of China’s climatic change in the past and future are analysed by applying station observations and GCM simulation results. Nationally, the country has warmed by 0.3°C in annual mean air temperature and decreased by 5% in annual precipitation over 1951–1990. Regionally, temperature change has varied from a cooling of 0.3°C in Southwest China to a warming of 1.0°C in Northeast China. With the exception of South China, all regions of China have shown a declination in precipitation. Climatic change has the features of increasing remarkably in winter temperature and decreasing obviously in summer precipitation. Under doubled CO2 concentration, climatic change in China will tend to be warmer and moister, with increases of 4.5°C in annual mean air temperature and 11 % in annual precipitation on the national scale. Future climatic change will reduce the temporal and spatial differences of climatic factors.