A Limited Area Model for Monsoon Prediction

A six level regional primitive equation model has been formulated and tested for monsoon prediction. The model uses dynamic normal mode initialization scheme for obtaining initial balance. The physical processes included are: the large scale condensation, the Kuo type of cumulus convection, the surface friction, the sensible heat supply and evap-oration over the sea. The actual smooth orography is included. The model has been integrated for 48 hrs using input of 7 July and 8 August 1979 when the domain of integration was dominated by an intense monsoon depression. In order to investigate the model simulation of formative stage of the depression, the model was also integrated using input of 4 July 1979.Furthermore, the envelope orography has been constructed and included in the model for investigating its effects on the monsoon prediction. Results of the model forecast are presented and discussed.