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大气科学  2011 

Flow-Dependent Mesoscale Predictability of Meiyu Heavy Rainfall
梅雨期暴雨系统的流依赖中尺度可预报性

Keywords: error growth,mesoscale predictability,Meiyu,heavy rainfall
误差增长
,中尺度可预报性,暴雨,梅雨类型

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Abstract:

The initial condition sensitivity leads to a limit for the prediction of mesoscale weather systems.The rapid growth of initial errors and associated mesoscale predictability depend on the features of flow.The generation of Meiyu heavy rainfall is the result of interaction of many different-scale weather systems.Therefore,there are different mechanisms for the formation and the sensitivity to initial condition of Meiyu heavy rainfall.The mechanisms of error growth for five different types of Meiyu rainfall a...

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