Mineral Commodity Prices Trend in the Late Crisis Times
后危机时代矿产品价格趋势分析

Based on analyzing the price trends of oil, copper, aluminum, nickel in the past 50 years, this paper sums up the long cycle price tendencies. Constant price shows periodic downtrend, while present price shows stepwise uptrend. The absolute decline in constant prices of copper, aluminum and nickel reflects the increase of efficiency resulting from the progress of technology. On the other hand, the rise in constant price of oil shows that the scarcity degree of resources has great impact on oil price. Meanwhile, the scarcity nature of resources shows that the efficiency of commodities that depend on resources can hardly keep up with that of other commodities, so the balance can be realized only by raising present prices in phases. Through an integrated analysis of production cost, supply and demand, and market system, it is estimated that mineral prices platform in the post finance crisis times is as follows: oil should be $60 a barrel, copper $3500 per ton, aluminum $2100 per ton, and nickel $14000 per ton.