A Modelling of Ensemble Prediction for Summer Precipitation
汛期预测的集合预告模拟研究

An experiment in ensemble prediction of the summer precipitation over East China is described in this paper. Six predictions start from February 1, 6, 11, 21 and 26, 1987. Taking the average of the six cases as the ensemble mean, thus we have seven predictions. The rate of the same signs between simulated rainfall anomaly and observed one are calculated. We also calculate the standard deviation of simulated rainfall for the six experiments. The results show that the difference between the six experiments are small in the distributions of rainfall on a large scale, the ensemble mean is more reasonable.The features of atmospheric dynamics are also discussed in this paper. It shows that the ensemble prediction of short-range climate differs from the short time and medium range numerical forecasting by physical base.