Study on Method of Short-range Forecast of Severe Covective Weather in Beijing Area
北京地区强对流天气短时预报方法的研究

This paper includes two parts. The relations between the hai1 fallout zone and surface meso-scale synoptic systems, the distribution of divergence, vorticity, total temperature, and relative humidity at the surface in Beiing area are analysed in the first aspect. Thereafter one conceptual model of the hail fallout zone is established, providing a scientific basis for predicting the hail fallout zone. The second part discribes a decision tree method of forecasting whether severe convective weather will happen and how strong it will be. This brings us a valuable idea about the shortrange forecast of severe convections.