A Realism Scenar io Analysis of Land- use Change at a Local Level
局地土地利用变化现实情景研究

Land-use change represents an implication of short-scheduling, better spatial orientation and anthropogenic compelling disturbance at the local level. Its processes and results are the most efficient approach for regional-level responses and national-and global-level feedbacks. Urbanization, agrarian structure transformation and land arrangement are presently the driving forces resulting in land-use change at the local level in China. Urbanization is an irreversible process. This process will result in the transformation from county's landscape to city's landscapes, accelerate the change of the characters of underlying surfaces such as surface albedoes and surface roughness, and in crease varieties of the habitat types and species diversities. Consequently, a new patterns of human homogenized landscape will be formed at the local level. Farmer's microcosmic choices of land-use styles are a kind of motility, which results in agrarian structure transformation. The differences in farmer's investment, production and management will lead to the changes of soil quality and environment. Land arrangement is a complex systematic engineering. Its implementation will change the local landscape structure, soil quality and hydrological process. Moreover, these results will influence correspondingly local ecologic environment. Thus, in order to profoundly understand local land use change, conceiving the theoretic frames of "human-land harmonious system", simulating land use change and evaluating ecologic benefit of land-use change will be the orientation of future research in land-use change at the local level.