Simulating Regional Land Use Change Based on CA and AO
基于CA与AO 的区域土地利用变化模拟研究——以三峡库区为例

Regional land use change is an important part of global change. The research of land use change in the reservoir area of Three Gorges has attracted a lot of attention with construction of Three Gorges dam. The reservoir area of Three Gorges has become one of the important research areas. Based on the Landsat TM datum in 1995 and 2005, simulated multi-land use types change in the reservoir area of Three Gorges was conducted with the support of RS and GIS. In the process of research, the theory of Cellular Automata and the model of Arc-Object were used, with programming in the VB environment to fulfill the simulation and the forecasting. Firstly, transform the land use map of coverage format into grid format, and the shatters were set 100*100m. Secondly, sample on the land use change map using the RASTER CALCULATOR in GIS, and then judge the transfer situation in order to determine the transfer probability of different land use types in the scale of 3*3 neighborhood. Thirdly, program in the VB environment and simulate repeatedly until the simulation result fits for the precision. Lastly, continue simulating and get the land use map in 2010 and 2015. The forecasting map indicates that the areas of urban land and rivers will increase and the area of cultivated land will decrease, which are reasonable and convincing because of the policy of returning cultivated land to forestry land and the rising of water level in the reservoir area.