GCM Simulations of Early Winter Warming in the Stratospheric Arctic
北极平流层冬季早期变暖的GCM模拟研究

Observations show that there were warming trends in the stratospheric Arctic in early winter (November-December) since the late 1970s. To test whether the warming trends result from rising Sea Surface Temperature (SST), an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced using observed global time-varying SST and sea ice concentrations. Ensemble simulations demonstrate that there are indeed statistically significant warming trends in the stratospheric Arctic under the SST forcing. The tropospheric Arc...