Methodology for Prediction of Large Natural Disasters
特大自然灾害预测研究的科学方法论

This paper discussed the scientific methodology problems in predicting the large and sudden natural disasters The author pointed out that we should consider the system as an open system, and conduct systematic research and seeks for key factor and make deep study Coupling of internal and external factors is the only way to bring up the large and sudden natural disasters As to the scientific concepts we need to change our mathematic analysis from the past one which is close to linearity, homogeneity, continuous, average or departure, smooth and quantity, into nonlinear, nonhomogencity, discontinuous, queerness, high frequency pulse, the structure etc and the unification of the tangibility and the quantity There exists a greatest and most extensive entire connection in the Universe In the final paragraph, we briefly discussed some philosophic problems