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SHORT-TERM PREDICTION METHODS AND REALIZATION OF EARTH ROTATION PARAMETERS
地球自转参数短期预报方法及其实现

Keywords: the Earth rotation parameters(ERP),trigonometric polynomial model,auto-regressive model,prediction accuracy,stationary test
地球自转参数
,三角多项式模型,自回归模型,预报精度,平稳性检验

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Abstract:

According to the respective characteristics of polar motion and length of day,combining LS and AR model,a suitable prediction model for the Earth Rotation Parameter(ERP) was builded.In order to reduce the strong correlation,the difference before establishing AR model was down and ERP 1-10 days were predicted.The results show that the prediction accuracy has reached an international leading level.

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