What Determines the Amplitude of ENSO Events?

In this paper, the dynamic effect of oceanic upwelling on the intensity of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a simple coupled model (Zebiak-Cane Model). The term balance analysis in the temperature variability equation shows that the anomalous upwelling of the mean vertical temperature gradient and the mean advection of the anomalous meridional temperature gradient are the two of most important factors that determine the intensity of ENSO events, in which the “vertical oceanic heat flux” in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is the primary influencing factor. The lag correlation between “vertical heat flux (VHF)” and ENSO intensity shows that the highest correlation occurs when the former leads the latter by one to two weeks. The VHF is positively correlated with the background thermocline strength in the EEP, and an increase of both could result in strong ENSO variability. Comparison of the forced and coupled experiments suggests that the coupled process can affect both the intensity and frequency of ENSO.