COMPARISON OF SIMULATED VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION IN CHINA PRODUCED BY FOUR POPULAR CLIMATE-VEGETATION CLASSIFICATION MODELS
4个常用的气候-植被分类模型对中国植被分布模拟的比较研究

The effectiveness and accordance of four popular climate-vegetation classification models (Penman model, Thornthwaite model, Holdridge Life Zone System and Kira model) for the geographic distribution of Chinese vegetation is compared using the KAPPA agreement statistic method. The results indicate that those four classification models work well in the first level of Chinese Vegetation Division. The KAPPA value of the Holdridge Life Zone System (0.57) is the largest among the four models. It showed that it is the best one a-mong four models in simulating the geographical distribution of Chinese vegetation. However, regarding some specific regions, for example, the Tibetan plateau, all of the models need to be refined or to take new affecting factors into account in order to obtain a better simulation of the geographic distribution of vegetation. 1) The Penman model could simulate the geographic distribution of vegetation in temperate steppe and Tibetan plateau with a KAPPA value greater than 0.50. It is the best one for Tibetan plateau among the four models. 2) The Thornthwaite model could give the best simulation for tropical rain forests and seasonal rain forests with KAPPA value of 0.40. It might compensate for the ineffectiveness of the Holdridge Life Zone System in this area. 3) The Holdridge Life Zone System is the best one among the four models for simulating the geographical distribution of vegetation in China based on the first level of vegetation division in China, but it still fails to simulate west seasonal rain forests and rain forests (52) , west temperate steppe (63) , Tibetan plateau temperate desert (86) and Tibetan plateau temperate steppe (84) . 4) The Kira model simulates the subtropical evergreen forest zone very well, and its KAPPA value in this zone is close to that of the Holdridge Life Zone System. Also it could simulate moderately well the geographical distribution of vegetation in low elevation and humid/semi-humid area, but it was far from the ground truth when applied to the regions of temperate desert and Tibetan Plateau. This research also implies that it is urgent to develop better climate-vegetation classification model in order to provide better input to the general circulation models (GCMs) with the geographic distribution of vegetation and to accurately evaluate the possible effects of climate change on vegetation.