TIME SERIES MODEL OF INDIVIDUAL AGE AND DIAMETER IN CASTANOPSIS KAWAKAMII POPULATION
格氏栲种群个体年龄与００胸径的时间序列模型研究

This study presented a new method to determine individual age of Castanopsis kawakamii population using time series model by integrating its annual ring with its diameter and height ARIMA(1,2,0) model of the relationship between individual age and diameter of C kawakamii population was determined by analysis of time series,the correlative efficient is 93 48% Thus ARIMA(1,2,0) model can be used to forecast diameter growth Meantime,the combination model which can exactly predict the individual age of C kawakamii population was built by combining predicted results of ARIMA(1,2,0) model with actual investigation,i e, A=10 15451 1 113851D 0 04220049D 2-0 000227303D 3 where, D was individual diameter, A was individual age,and the correlative efficient was 0 9998 As a result,the extremely remarkable relationship between this individual diameter and age stated clearly that using the combination model to determine individual age of C kawakamii population was an efficient method,which provided a reliable method for relevant studies