Dynamic assessment and forecasting of provincial eco-environmental quality from matter element model and Markov chain --A case study of Jiangxi Province
基于可拓物元-马尔科夫模型的省域生态环境质量动态评价与预测——以江西省为例

By developing a characteristics indicator system of eco-environmental matter elements, this paper advanced an assessment and forecasting method of provincial eco-environmental quality based on the matter element model and Markov chain. The system was applied to Jiangxi Province as case study. The results show that eco-environmental quality in Jiangxi Province as simulated by matter element model has been, on the overall, improved from 2000 to 2005. The degree of improvement is, however, different for the 11 districts in the province. On the other hand, Markov chain forecast shows that the eco-environmental quality seems heading in a better evolutional direction in the next 5~10 years, provided current eco-environment governance is sustained. The application effects imply that the assessment and forecast of the models, to a certain extent, reflect actual conditions and development trends of the provincial eco-environmental quality. However, because of limitations in the model assumptions, improvements are needed in application of the model to different regions in different phases of economic development.