Study on the quantitative relationships between regional input fluctuations and economic growth in China
区域投入波动与增长的数量关系研究

Using the extended production function as the analysis framework, an analysis model of regional input factor fluctuations and regional economic growth is constructed. Applying 1981-2003 data on regional GDP and its components, labor inputs, exports of 25 provincial regions in China, the fluctuations of capital input (KI), final consumption (CI) and exports (XI) are calculated for every region as the relative standard errors around the respective best-fitted trends during the period 1981-2003. These fluctuation measures and the data above-mentioned are then employed to estimate the analysis model, which controls for the effects of capital, labor and exports, and the fluctuations. The estimation result of the analysis model shows that, on one hand, the growth rates of regional capital, labor inputs and exports have positive effects on regional economic growth in China during the period, in which the positive effect of capital input is the most among the three inputs, capital, labor, exports, the one of the labor input is the second to it, the one of exports is the least among the three; on the other hand, the fluctuations KI, CI and XI have adverse influences on regional economic growth in China during the same period, in which the deleterious effect of XI is the most among the three fluctuations, the one of CI is the second to it, the one of KI is the third to it. This research, in some sense, shows not only the increases of capital input, labor input and exports will aggrandize the outputs of regional economic output, but also the decreases of the fluctuations of exports, final consumption and capital input will also enhance the regional economic outputs.