Analysis on Temporal Variation of Environmental Impact Based on STIRPAT Model——A Case Study of Energy Consumption of China
基于STIRPAT模型分析中国环境压力的时间差异——以1952-2003年能源消费为例

Human activities have dramatically altered the global environment,quantitative analysis on the impacts of human activities on environment is one of the highlights in the research field of sustainable development.The total energy consumption and the pollutions from energy consumption processes were taken as the indexes of two different kinds of environmental impacts.Utilizing the STIRPAT model,taking total energy consumption time-series data of China from 1952 to 2003 as an example,this paper analyzed the effect by the anthropogenic driving forces on environmental impacts,including total population,affluence,energy intensity and chosen behavior of energy consumption.The result showed that a 1% change in total population or energy intensity results in a 1.992% or 0.777% change,respectively.With the growth of affluence, the coefficient of affluence elasticity of impact will increase.So,in this empirical study,the overall findings do not support the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis.In different decades,the effects of the anthropogenic driving forces vary dramatically.The growth of total population and affluence has positive effect on environmental impacts;however,the fluctuation of energy intensity has positive or negative effect on environmental impacts in different decades.The behavior of clean energy consumption is helpful to control the environmental impacts which takes the pollution from energy consumption processes as an index.The change of environmental impacts was determined by the net effect of all kinds of anthropogenic driving forces.