Research for Scenarios Simulation of Urban Land Use Change in Beijing by System Dynamic Model under Water Restriction from 2004 to 2020
水资源约束下北京地区2004-2020年土地利用变化情景模拟研究

Modelling scenarios of land use change under natural resources restriction in typical regions are helpful and significant in investigating the mechanism between land use and natural resources and processing the land use allocation under the resource security.A system dynamic(System Dynamics,SD)model under water restriction aiming at simulating urban land use change is developed in this paper.The model studies different "what-if" scenarios of urban land use change which are controlled by the restricted water resource,along with other elements,such as population,economy and technology advancement.In addition,the model is applied in Beijing.The accuracy assessment with the historical data in Beijing from 1980 to 2003 indicates that this SD model is available to understand the restriction of water resource to land use change and social development.The scenarios simulation of urban land use in Beijing from 2004 to 2020 suggests that natural resources exert a strong influence on land use change of the region,leading to severe shortage of natural resources.The results indicate that water resource confines the enlargement of urban land use to some extent.The normal increment without water restriction is 40.42-63.38km2,under water restriction is 21.21-51.30km2.The total urban land use of the former to the whole area is 22%-25% and that of the latter,20%-24%,indicating that restricted scenario is far lower than that without restriction.Especially the average increment rate of the fervent-restricted scenario is only 21.21km2,that is 37.6% of the weak-restricted scenario and 33% of the rapid-developing scenario without water restriction.Moreover,it needs to point out that the less the amount of water resource is,the more significant the influence of water resource on land use change.With the speedup of urbanization and the further economic development in Beijing,the limitation of water resources to Beijing's development is becoming more and more obvious.