Water resources carrying capacity and emigration of mountain areas of southern Ningxia
宁南山区水资源承载能力及移民规模研究

Through analysis of the pattern of water resources development and utilization in the mountain areas of southern Ningxia,the agricultural development model was established and local water resources carrying capacity and emigrant scale was put forward.Firstly,this paper discussed the theory and calculation method of water resources carrying capacity in an arid zone.Then,regarding 2000 as a base year,the population growth and food demand in the mountain areas of southern Ningxia were predicted to recommend agricultural development pattern adapting to the local conditions and estimate the agricultural production capacity.Finally, according to GDP and food production capacity,it was concluded that water resources carrying capacity in mountain areas of southern Ningxia might be increased from 2 300 000 people in the base year to 4 000 000 people in the target year 2020,and regarding a county as a unit,500 000 emigrants or less in accu-mulative total might be reasonable.As a result,the ecosystem might be restored and the envir-onment effectively protected.