Research Progress on Uncertainty in Hydrologic Simulation
水文系统模拟不确定性研究进展

Based on the basic characters in hydrologic simulation,the authors analyzed the causes of uncertainty widely existed in hydrologic simulation,reviewed on research progress in various hydrologic simulation uncertainty,and introduced the general flow of Bayesian Probability Hydrology Forecasting System.It has been found that the mathematical statistics is a helpful tool for quantitatively describing hydrologic uncertainty,besides,to further limit the uncertainty of hydrologic simulation needs efforts in following studies: to perfect the research on hydrologic mechanism,to improve the observation level of precipitation and the related parameters of underlying surface,to increase the precipitation forecast accuracy,and to heighten the efficiency and precision of probability hydrology calculation.