Application of phenological pattern recognition in ecological dynamic forecasting
物候模式识别在生态动力预报中的应用

This paper described the principles,methods,and procedures of ecological dynamic forecasting by the automation techniques of pattern recognition and mathematical logic judgment on the basis of phenological data and model output maps from T42L9 numerical weather prediction model.This new forecasting method proposed on the basis of modern meteorology and automation techniques enables the classic phenology to apply to a new field ecological forecasting.It enables phenological forecasting to develop from single-station forecasting stage to regional forecasting stage,which is greatly corresponded to the development stage from single station forecasting stage to synoptic stage in weather forecasting,and enables agro-meteorological forecasting to develop from qualitative and statistical forecasting stage to ecological dynamic forecasting stage.With this new qualitative forecasting method,both the predicted objective and predictors are of considerable bio-physical interests.The ecological dynamic forecasting method could be applied to crop sowing,crop growth,irrigation and fertilization,and diseases and pests control.