Geostatistical analysis on temporal patterns of Chilo suppressalis population
基于地统计学的二化螟种群时间格局分析

The geostatistical analysis on the temporai patterns of Chilo suppressalis population in the Dingcheng District of Changde City, Hunan Province from 1960 to 2001 indicated that the data series of the total number and the numbers of 1^st generation, 2^rd generation, and over-wintering larvae from year to year displayed better autocorrelation and prediction, especially for the total number, whose autocorrelation range and degree were 10.3 years and 91.1%, respectively. The data series of generation to generation, 1^st generation year to year, 3^rd generation year to year, and over-wintering larvae year to year all demonstrated an obvious long-term tendency, especially for overwintering larvae. A remarkable cycle of 3 generations in one year was observed in the population of generation to generation. Omitting certain generation or interposing over-wintering larvae only resulted in a slight change in the autocorrelation of the whole data series generation to generation, while planting system, food, climate, and natural enemies played more important roles in regulating the population dynamics rather than the base number of the larvae. The basic techniques of geostatistics applied in analyzing the temporal dynamics of C. suppressalis population were outlined.