Methodolagy of Winter Wheat Yield Prediction based on Assimilation of Remote Sensing Data with Crop Growth Model
基于遥感数据与作物生长模型同化的冬小麦长势监测与估产方法研究

In this paper,the shuffled complex evolution(SCE_UA) method was used to assimilate remotely sensed data into CERES_Wheat model.In the process of model assimilation,leaf area index(LAI) was considered as the state variable.The simulated main growth stages and yields after assimilation were compared with simulated growth stages and yields with CERES_Wheat using actual input,and with measured data in the fields.The measured data was collected from four fields in different locations and planting conditions in Shunyi district and Beijing.The results show that the accuracy of simulation results of CERES_Wheat model after assimilation is not very sensitive to LAI errors and the number of LAI data.The advantage of the SCE_UA method will help to realize wheat growth monitoring and yield prediction.