Housing Price Forecasting Method based on TEI@I Methodology
基于TEIl＠I方法论的房价预测方法

Based on TEI@I methodology proposed by Wang et al.(2005),this paper proposes a housing price forecasting method.According to how to analyze small sample data in the research method,114 important indicators are selected by rough sets theory,and the leading indicators are selected with time difference correlation analysis.Seasonal housing price is forecasted by regression model and grey model,integrated by wavelet neural network for error correction.The empirical study shows that the housing price will rise 6.88% in Q4-2006 and 6.64% in Q1-2007. Standard event study methodology is used to measure the political impact on the real estate investment,which is one of the most important indicators to forecast the housing price.The empirical analysis shows that macro-policy in 2005 suppressed the growth of the real estate investment and housing price.