The Establishment and Analysis of Monte Carlo Model in Satellite Cost Estimation
基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型研究

After analysis,the paper points out that the traditional satellite cost estimation models does not include the corresponding uncertainties,and unable to understand these influences on cost of factor,it cannot predict the accident.Then,this paper put forward Monte Carlo model deal with the uncertainties caused by technological problems,after that,the paper carries on further research to this model,under the basis of the thing that X2 fits and examines,direct against that the distribution curve drawn to simulation may lie between two kinds of standards distributing,the thought of putting forward the second time fitting examining,has improved the precision of fitting.Finally,it puts collected corresponding data into this model and compares with the traditional satellite cost estimation method,the precision almost increase 10%.Therefore,we can see that using Monte Carlo method to estimate satellite cost can get better precision.