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系统工程理论与实践 2007
Heteroskedastic Volatility Models in Chinese Stock Market and Their SPA Test
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Abstract:
One high-frequency dataset of the most important stock index in Chinese stock market is used to calculate the volatility forecasts based on different heteroskedastic volatility models,such as GARCH models and stochastic volatility model.We compare the forecasting performance of different kinds of volatility models using SPA test.The empirical results show that,stochastic volatility model is the best models for volatility forecasts in Chinese stock market.However,under some kinds of loss functions,EGARCH model also performance quite well.