When to Activate Contingency Plans within Disruptive Incidents
突发事件下何时启动应急预案

Contingency plans are the important and efficient methods for the manager of the nation and corporations when they are in disruptive incidents.The paper explores the problem that when the managers activate contingency plans under the disruptions.In the absence of duration of information about unexpected events,we constucte the plan to activate contingency plans for the program using decision theory and methods,and use the "competitive ratio" to explain the effectiveness of the program;On this basis,further,we study the two enterprises activate contingency plans issues,point out the time-distortion phenomena of the activation of the plan under decentralized decision-making,and propose assistance mechanism to coordinate enterprise's act in the event of sudden activation of the plan.