The Optimal Timing and Probability Studying of Generation Firm Investment under Power Price Uncertainty
电价不确定环境下发电商的最优投资时机及其概率分析

Reformation of the power industry makes generation companies become independent investment body in power generation market,this article studies generation companies' investment decisions.Based on the basic investment principle that generation companies always are in pursuit of maximum investment profit,it is analyzed that power price movement property has effect on the timing and probability of generation capacity project investment exercise through martingale and change of measure in this paper.The studies show that generation companies generally delay investing under energy price uncertainty,and capacity price has much incentive to invest in capacity project.The conclusion indicates that uncertainty is causes of investment risk,the increasing in uncertainty of energy price raises investment risk of generation companies,and reduces the probability of generation project investment exercise.