The Researches on the Test Power and Features on the Lagging Number Selecting Criteria about the Time Series Models
时间序列建模中滞后阶数选取准则函数的检测效力及其特征

The paper studies the test power and features on the lagging number selecting criteria about the time series models.The author uses Monte-Carlo methods to systematically simulation on the all lag 1 and lag 2 autoregressive models and the conclusions show:1)The probability of correct judging of SIC increases obviously accompanying with the samples increasing and converges to 1 little by lilltle, but that of AIC can not converges to the true values.2)The probabilities of correct judging by all the criteria functions have no relations to the stabilities of the variables.3)The test power of AICC is much higher than that of AIC and SIC when the sample is small,which of SIC is higher than that of AIC and AICC little by little as the samples increase,furthermore the test power of AIC nearlly equals to that of AICC finally.