The Predicting Method of Reservoir Production Capacity by Grey System Theory
储层油气产能的灰色理论预测方法

In this paper, the theoretical equation of the reservoir's production capacity is studied from the Darcy's two-dimensional production equation. The complicated relation between the production capacity and effective porosity, permeability, resistivity is established, through the functional relationship between relative permeability and water saturation. Based on the above studies, combining with the log basic theories, we approach the way of predicting the reservoir's production capacity using log data. Finally the prediction system of reservoir's production capacity is established by grey relating analysis. This method can not only quantitatively evaluates the classification of reservoir's production capacity, but also gives the reliability of evaluation results by relation degree. The method is successfully for the oil-gas production capacity prediction of the reservoir of the third segment, Dongying Formation, in the Hainan tectonic belt, Tanhai area, Liaohe Oil-field.