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系统工程理论与实践 2004
The Uncertainty Analysis and Optimal Strategies for Exploration and Extraction of Oil and Gas Resources
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Abstract:
The characteristics of the exploration and extraction activities of oil and gas resources are analyzed firstly, so the model of exploration discovery rate and the reserves model could be deduced. With the aim to maximize the income of development of oil and gas and by the assumption that price of oil and gas follows the geometric Brownian motion, an stochastic optimal control model for the exploration and extraction of oil and gas resources has been established. Finally, the problem was solved by the dynamic programming method, so optimal strategies can be found.