EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON DYNAMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN DEPOSITS AND LOANS IN CHINA
中国存贷款派生过程的实证研究

The dynamic relations between deposits and loans in China are investigated by means of vector autoregressive models, cointegration analysis, vector errorcorrection models, business cyclical analysis method. The empirical results show that the deposits and the loans affect each other, but infleuencing degrees between them are different. Particularly, the deposits are the leading indicators of the loans, and the turning point of the deposits is earlier for 9--12 months than that of loan. Deposits is the most important factor for the loans, but loans isnot the most important factor for the deposits. Moreover, CPI and the income are two influencing factor for the deposits, CPI is an influencing factor for the loans, but nominal interest rate has no significant influence on both the deposits and the loans.