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生态学报  2007 

Effects of the implementation of climate policy by increasing carbon sinks on China''''s economy
中国增汇型气候保护政策实施对经济的影响

Keywords: carbon mitigation,carbon sinks,policy simulation,climate protection
CO2减排
,增汇,政策模拟,气候保护

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Abstract:

This paper simulates the effects of the implementation of climate policy by increasing carbon sinks on China's economy.Two macro model systems were adopted,which are the decision support system of climate protection in China and the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model of Chinese economy.The first scheme is a macroeconomic model combined with the dynamic of climate system and also the model of endogenous technology change.The second framework integrates the component of climate protection into the CGE model capable of modelling the interactivity of China's 17 economic sectors.Results from the first model system showed that the policy of increasing carbon sinks was favourable in terms of maintaining the national economic stability,compared with other climate protection policies such as the approaches of alternative energy and controlling the level of production.Although the climate protection policy by expanding carbon sinks would negatively affect economic growth in the short run,the policy approach would enhance the energy of China's economy in the long term.This paper suggests that increasing carbon sinks should be a recommendable policy.The result from the second model indicated that the policy of increasing carbon sinks would make negative influence on GDP growth but households would have more comfortable living conditions.The CGE framework also points out some notable influence of this climate protection policy.

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